Paper ledger
A pretend $10 on every logged play with an edge above zero, at the price it had when it was logged. Nothing here is a real bet.
Toward the first checkpoint
500 settled bets per sport before reading much into profit. Line move is the earlier signal: how often the price moved toward the play before the game. Prices shorter than -500 are left out; they stay on each sport's page.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | Break-even | Profit | Return | Line move | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL14 pending | 123 | 63.4% | 64.1% | -$9.39 | -0.8% | +0.9 pts | 53% of 59 |
| NFL11 pending | 168 | 56.0% | 56.8% | -$36.23 | -2.2% | – | – |
| NBA306 pending | 443 | 51.5% | 53.5% | -$197.65 | -4.5% | +0.9 pts | 58% of 245 |
| All sports331 pending | 734 | 54.5% | 56.0% | -$243.26 | -3.3% | +0.9 pts | 57% of 304 |
By edge size
If the model is right, bigger edges should do better. If the biggest edges do worst, they are more likely mispriced inputs than real value.
| Edge when logged | Bets | Hit rate | Break-even | Profit | Return | Line move | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge 0-2%112 pending | 214 | 55.1% | 57.9% | -$113.32 | -5.3% | +0.8 pts | 53% of 95 |
| Edge 2-5%103 pending | 253 | 58.9% | 57.3% | +$72.37 | +2.9% | +0.7 pts | 59% of 107 |
| Edge 5-10%67 pending | 159 | 56.0% | 54.9% | +$23.21 | +1.5% | +0.9 pts | 53% of 64 |
| Edge 10%+49 pending | 108 | 40.7% | 51.1% | -$225.52 | -20.9% | +1.7 pts | 68% of 38 |
By stat
| Stat | Bets | Hit rate | Break-even | Profit | Return | Line move | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA assists63 pending | 88 | 54.5% | 53.4% | +$22.82 | +2.6% | +1.2 pts | 54% of 48 |
| NBA made threes44 pending | 79 | 57.0% | 55.4% | +$23.47 | +3.0% | +1.3 pts | 59% of 54 |
| NBA points123 pending | 171 | 46.8% | 52.3% | -$206.19 | -12.1% | +0.6 pts | 57% of 83 |
| NBA rebounds76 pending | 105 | 52.4% | 54.2% | -$37.75 | -3.6% | +0.9 pts | 62% of 60 |
| NFL passing yards | 19 | 52.6% | 60.3% | -$28.90 | -15.2% | – | – |
| NFL receiving yards6 pending | 99 | 63.6% | 57.2% | +$112.25 | +11.3% | – | – |
| NFL rushing yards5 pending | 42 | 35.7% | 54.7% | -$153.17 | -36.5% | – | – |
| NFL touchdowns scored | 8 | 75.0% | 55.4% | +$33.59 | +42.0% | – | – |
| NHL points | 42 | 52.4% | 67.5% | -$96.61 | -23.0% | +0.4 pts | 47% of 19 |
| NHL shots on goal14 pending | 81 | 69.1% | 62.3% | +$87.22 | +10.8% | +1.1 pts | 55% of 40 |
Reading this page
Break-even is the hit rate the prices needed. Line move is in percentage points of implied chance; a positive average means the market tended to move toward these plays after they were logged.
96% of paper bets share a game with another paper bet, so results come in clumps rather than one at a time.
NFL plays use the unadjusted chance until the NFL script gets the same adjustment as NHL.